Date Published: 
Wed, 18/01/2012 - 10:08
    Our latest voting intention figures show the Tories have finally closed the gap with both major parties on 37%.
  • In fact when it comes to raw numbers of respondents the Tories are actually slightly ahead (by approximately 9 respondents)
  • As the chart shows, the gap has been closing since David Cameron’s stylistically important (but substantively less important) veto of the Eurozone rescue treaty in early December
  • As we can see below, while the Labour and Conservative parties have been neck and neck at a few points over the last year, the Tories have never actually been ahead in an Opinium survey (i.e. in a different % point) so it remains to be seen whether this is a trend
  • The straight voting-intent question is the only metric that has Labour consistently ahead of the Conservatives as polling by Opinium and other firms has shown Ed Miliband being regularly beaten by David Cameron in most leader rating surveys and until recently most surveys blamed “the last Labour government” for public spending cuts rather than the coalition government.

Topline Voting Intention

  % Change
Conservative 37 +1
Labour 37 n/c
Liberal Democrats 9 n/c
Other parties 18 n/c

Other Parties (breakdown)

  % Change
UKIP 6 -1
Green 4 n/c
SNP 4 n/c
BNP 2 n/c
Plaid Cymru 1 n/c
Other 1 n/c

Notes to Journalists: 

Opinium Research carried out an online survey of 1,983 GB adults aged 18+ from 13th to 15th January 2012. Results have been weighted to nationally representative criteria.

Additional Info: 

Interview Method and Sample

This survey is conducted online by CAWI (computer aided web interviewing), using Opinium’s online research panel of circa 30,000 individuals. This research is run from a representative sample of GB adults (aged 18+ in England, Scotland and Wales). The sample is scientifically defined from pre-collected registration data containing gender, age (18-34, 35-54, and 55+), region (North East, North West, Yorkshire and Humberside, East Midlands, West Midlands, East of England, London, South East, South West, Wales, and Scotland), working status and social grade to match the latest published ONS figures.

Opinium also takes into account differential response rates from the different demographic groups, to ensure the sample is representative.

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