14th May 2013
Political Polling
Date Published: 
Fri, 17/05/2013 - 17:20

UKIP surge to 20% while the Conservatives sink below the total for “others”, giving Labour a 10 point lead

  • The Lib Dems sink to 7% while the Conservatives have hit 27%. For both coalition parties this is the lowest Opinium have recorded since we started tracking voting intention before the 2010 election
  • David Cameron has had a bad fortnight with his approval rating dropping by three points to 29% while those who disapprove increase to 55%. His net rating therefore drops from -19% to -26%, breaking a four week period in which his net rating outstripped Ed Miliband’s
  • Labour leader Ed Miliband’s approval rating is almost unchanged. 24% approve while 43% disapprove, giving him a net rating of -19%. This is statistically unchanged from -20% two weeks ago
  • Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg sees a four point increase in the number who disapprove, to 63% from 59%, causing his net rating to drop from -45% to -49%. 14% approve

This week we asked likely voters whether thought each of the main three party leaders leads or follows their party

  • 30% of likely voters say that David Cameron is in control of his party while 35% believe his party is in control of him
  • 27% of likely voters believe Ed Miliband is in control of his party while 32% believe it controls him
  • 16% believe Nick Clegg controls his party while 46% believe it controls him
  • 60% of Conservative voters believe Mr Cameron is in control of his party compared to 50% of Labour voters who say the same for Ed Miliband and 39% of Lib Dem voters about Nick Clegg
  • We also presented respondents with the following scenario: “Recently David Cameron has been criticised by some Conservative backbench MPs and party members over Europe and other issues. Regardless of your views on the issues, which of the following do you think the Prime Minister should do?”

  • Just 20% said the PM should “enforce his views and overrule them” while 67% believe he should “listen and pay more attention to their views”
  • While these figures were similar across most partisan lines, 85% of UKIP voters think Mr Cameron should listen to his backbenchers
  • Topline Voting Intention

      % Change
    Conservative 27 -1
    Labour 37 +2
    Liberal Democrats 7 -2
    Other parties 29 +1

    Other Parties (breakdown)

      % Change
    UKIP 20 +3
    Green 4 n/c
    SNP 3 -1
    BNP 1 n/c
    Plaid Cymru 1 n/c
    Other 0 -1

    Approval ratings

      % Approve % Disapprove Net rating Net rating (own party)
    David Cameron 29% 55% -26% +70%
    Ed Miliband 24% 43% -19% +43%
    Nick Clegg 14% 63% -49% +42%

    Voting Intention Tracker

    Voting Intention Tracker (including UKIP)

Notes to Journalists: 

Opinium Research carried out an online survey of 1,955 GB adults aged 18+ from 14th - 16th May 2013. Results have been weighted to nationally representative criteria.

Additional Info: 

Interview Method and Sample

This survey is conducted online by CAWI (computer aided web interviewing), using Opinium’s online research panel of circa 30,000 individuals. This research is run from a representative sample of GB adults (aged 18+ in England, Scotland and Wales). The sample is scientifically defined from pre-collected registration data containing gender, age (18-34, 35-54, and 55+), region (North East, North West, Yorkshire and Humberside, East Midlands, West Midlands, East of England, London, South East, South West, Wales, and Scotland), working status and social grade to match the latest published ONS figures.

Opinium also takes into account differential response rates from the different demographic groups, to ensure the sample is representative.

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