Despite the Conservatives' national difficulties, London Mayor Boris Johnson appears to be on course for re-election this Thursday with our poll showing him beating Ken Livingstone by 43% to 37% in first preference votes and by a slightly narrower 52% to 48% when the second preferences of supporters of other candidates are allocated.
|1st Preference Vote%||Predicted final vote once 2nd preferences are re-allocated|
|Boris Johnson (Conservative)||43||52|
|Ken Livingstone (Labour)||37||48|
|Brian Paddick (Liberal Democrats)||7|
|Jenny Jones (Green)||6|
|Lawrence Webb (UKIP)||3|
|Siobahn Benita (Ind)||3|
|Carlos Cortiglia (BNP)||1|
Opinium Research carried out an online survey of 1,010 London adults aged 18+ from 24th to 30th April 2012. Results have been weighted to representative criteria.
Interview Method and Sample
This survey is conducted online by CAWI (computer aided web interviewing), using Opinium’s online research panel of circa 30,000 individuals. This research is run from a representative sample of GB adults (aged 18+ in England, Scotland and Wales). The sample is scientifically defined from pre-collected registration data containing gender, age (18-34, 35-54, and 55+), region (North East, North West, Yorkshire and Humberside, East Midlands, West Midlands, East of England, London, South East, South West, Wales, and Scotland), working status and social grade to match the latest published ONS figures.
Opinium also takes into account differential response rates from the different demographic groups, to ensure the sample is representative.